Friday, March 30, 2012

Round 1 (Supplemental): Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami Dade CC

(They named a team after Roger Bernadina?!? from Perfect Game)

No 2011 Stats

Sean's one sentence analysis: Toolsy in a good way, with a solid bat and plate discipline, speed and developing power.

Thoughts from the community: 
"Scouts believe Goodwin has the potential to have five tools that range from average to plus. Speed is his strongest tool, but he’s still learning to employ it on the basepaths and in center field. The Nats are said to have spent most of the instrux last fall trying to teach him to use his lower half to hit, a common problem for collegiate batters." Luke Erickson, (@nats_prospects)

"After an impressive freshman season in 2010 at the University of North Carolina, Goodwin went to the Cape Cod League that summer and starred for the Harwich Mariners, batting atop their lineup, playing center field, and hitting an impressive .281/.364/.360. After returning to Chapel Hill that fall, Goodwin was suspended from the team for an off-field incident, which led to his transferring to Miami-Dade College for his sophomore year and made him eligible for the 2011 draft. Goodwin started slowly at his new school, but turned it on closer to draft day to produce a .382/.492/.631 batting line, along with 16 stolen bases for the Sharks. Goodwin is a talented 5-tool player, with major league average or better tools across the board, and his hit tool is particularly advanced for his age. Although he needs polish, especially defensively in center field, and will likely move slowly through the Nationals’ farm system, Goodwin has the potential to be a fringe All-Star caliber center fielder in his prime, perhaps as soon as 2015." - Ryan Sullivan, (@natsgmdotcom)

Previous analysis and notes:
Goodwin started his college career at UNC, but was suspended for the 2011 season and subsequently transferred to Miami-Dade College.
Goodwin's stats in college:
2010 (UNC): .291/.411/.511, 66 H/227 AB, 47 R, 13 2B, 8 3B, 7 HR, 63 RBI, 7/9 SB, 45 BB/49 K
2011 (MDC): .382/.492/.631, 60 H/157 AB, 42 R, 11 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 16/18 SB, 37 BB/??? K
From Matt Garrioch, MLB Bonus Baby, 6/17/2011: "Goodwin was a supplemental pick after being talked about as a 1st round talent, or even as high as the top pick in the 2012 draft when he was a freshman at North Carolina. After he was suspended from North Carolina, he went to Miami-Dade JC and did well, but didn't dominate. Some people see him as a future power hitting, speedy center fielder with an above average arm. I see him as a light hitting, patient hitter with good but not great speed and average ability in center field but more likely a left fielder. He is a good upside pick in this spot. His hit tool will decide his value long term."
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 6/14/2011: "Good speed, draws walks, power is developing. Main scout gripe is spotty defense but that should improve with experience."
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball/Baseball Nation, 6/7/2011: "Very toolsy outfielder with good speed, patience at the plate, and moderate power. Needs work on defense but high ceiling."
From Nathan Rode, Baseball America, 6/6/2011: "Goodwin has been compared to Jacque Jones with his average to plus tools across the board. He's a good hitter, showing patience and strength at the plate."
From Matt Grabusky, MLB Draft Guide, 6/5/2011: "Brian Goodwin is a top athlete and one of the most dynamic talents available in the 2011 draft. Goodwin is filled with potential offensively. He has a good approach at the plate and is willing to take a walk. He has plus bat speed. Goodwin’s swing is not geared to for hitting home runs, but he should be in the 10-15 home run range. He is also a threat to steal once he is on base. The only drawback for Goodwin is that he does tend to swing and miss a bit too often. Goodwin should be able to remain in center at the next level. He covers plenty of ground and has a plus arm. His breaks and routes need work...His game needs some polish, but there is plenty of potential here."
From Allan Simpson, Perfect Game USA, 6/1/2011: "Goodwin is unmistakably one of the elite athletes in the 2011 draft class, but his career to date has been marked by a number of twists and turns. His latest diversion has seen him spend his sophomore campaign at Florida’s Miami-Dade College after he was suspended in November for the 2011 season at North Carolina for violating university policy. He quickly emerged as the top prospect in the nation’s junior-college ranks and is a near-certain bet to be selected in the first round...Goodwin’s superior athleticism and maturing baseball skills make him an obvious first-round candidate, no matter what the draft year. He has all the raw tools to excel in the big leagues, and his combination of hitting skills, emerging power, superior speed and stellar defense makes him one of the best all-around outfield prospects in the 2011 draft. Goodwin is a 6.5-second runner with outstanding range in center field. He also has one of the top outfield arms in the class. Offensively, Goodwin has a quick, effortless lefthanded swing and stays inside the ball with a level, line-drive type swing. His raw strength enables him to generate bat speed and drive balls into the gaps, although his present approach at the plate limits his loft power. Goodwin was hobbled this spring by a hamstring issue initially, impacting his speed on the bases and in the outfield, but his entire game picked up as he regained full health...Goodwin is far from a finished product, however, and scouts say he’ll need to continue to refine both his approach at the plate and defense in center field. More than anything, he needs to develop more consistent breaks on balls hit his way in order to settle in as an everyday center fielder...If teams are convinced he can play center field over the long haul, he will be an overwhelming favorite to be the first junior-college player drafted in June, though he tentatively plans to return to North Carolina for his junior year if the draft doesn’t work out for him."
From Josh G, MLB Bonus Baby, 5/28/2011: "Goodwin is a tremendous athlete who was expected to go higher in the draft after being kicked off the North Carolina baseball team. He is a very good athlete though his instincts are still a bit lacking. He is committed to South Carolina next year."
From Matt Garrioch, MLB Bonus Baby, 5/13/2011: "Some people will tell you that Brian Goodwin could be a potential #1 overall pick if he doesn't sign this year and plays at South Carolina next year. Don't believe them. He won't hit much and the draft next year isn't as deep as this one, by any means, but it isn't a paltry class either. I don't have a crystal ball but I’m just stating my opinion. I’m saying Goodwin won’t hit enough to be the #1 overall pick. That’s not much of a limb to go out on. I’m sure everyone has favorites and guys they don’t like as much as others. Goodwin is on my overrated list."
From, 5/13/2011: "Goodwin possesses many of the same tools from a couple of years back. The left-handed hitter should be above average at the plate, with a good approach and the ability to square balls up. He's got future above-average power to all fields as well. An above-average runner, he uses his speed well on the bases, where he should be a basestealer, and in the outfield. He's got plenty of arm strength and a solid glove -- one that could work in center, but might be best suited to left field when all is said and done. He's got enough bat to play a corner, and the glimpses of all five tools he shows should have him in the first-round conversation."
From Nick Faleris, Diamond Scape Scouting, 1/21/2011: "Goodwin is slightly more refined, but like (UConn OF George) Springer needs to quiet his approach at the plate and tighten-up his game across the board." Faleris noted Goodwin as having the best arm out of all draft-eligible outfielders.
From John Kilma, Baseball Beginnings, 10/16/2010: "Left-handed hitter who has potential to become a very good player. Smooth swing, firm front, good hands, nice extension, confident in hands."

According to Jon Heyman of SI, the Nats have signed Brian Goodwin to a deal with a $3 million SB.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Round 4: Kylin Turnbull, LHP, Santa Barbara CC


2011 Stats: 

Sean's one sentence analysis: It's difficult to find lefties that throw hard like Turnbull, and at 6'5", he still has room to add velocity.

Thoughts from the community: "Turnbull is a "projectability pick" based largely on his long, lean frame. His fastball velocity, however, is famously erratic (e.g. can range from 86 to 94 on back-to-back outings). He also throws an inconsistent slider and slow (80-84) splitter. He's been drafted twice now, so the Nats are not alone in wondering what this raw talent might become with some professional tutelage." - Luke Erickson, Nationals Prospects (@nats_prospects)

Previous analysis and notes:
Turnbull threw 80 innings in 2011, striking out 92 batters with just a 2.47 ERA at Santa Barbara CC. The 2010 30th round pick by the White Sox is a reliever whose fastball reached the mid 90's in MPH this year. Roundup: "Turnbull improved his Draft stock after the White Sox took him in the 30th round last year. The 6-foot-4 southpaw throws a fastball around 93 mph and had a 2.47 ERA this season."
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 6/14/2011: "Big projectable lefty put up excellent numbers this year, velocity is average but slider and splitter have potential and his velocity could pick up further. Sleeper pick. Oregon commitment."
From Nathan Rode, Baseball America, 6/7/2011: "Faded down the stretch but has lean, loose frame at 6-foot-4, 195. Average fastball but has touched 93-94. Average splitter and fringy slider."
On 6/2/2011, John Sickels named Turnbull as a player he was interested in for his Shadow Draft.
On 5/13/2011, Aaron Fitt of Baseball America tweeted, "Kylin Turnbull's command has been spotty, but he's gotten Ks with fastball, SL (78-81) & SP. Heard he's touched 94 this yr, but 87-91 today."
From John Klima, Baseball Beginnings, 7/3/2010: "A GOOD GET IF YOU CAN SIGN HIM: Santa Barbara City College left-hander Kylin Turnbull threw very well this spring. Many scouts who saw him felt there is much projection left in his arm." (Note that this is from last year's draft).

According to Jim Callis of Baseball America, 4th round pick LHP Kylin Turnbull of Santa Barbara CC has signed for $325,000, about $100,000 above the slot recommendation for the pick.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Round 5: Matt Skole 3B, Georgia Tech

Baseball-Reference                                                                                                                 FanGraphs
MiLB                                                                                                                             Georgia Tech Bio

2011 Stats:
1 Season723192724379231548214252.290.382.438.82011921040
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 3/22/2012.

Sean's one sentence analysis: Has the bat to be an average major league 3B and the glove to be an average major league 1B with the potential to do a little more.

"Matt Skole can hit. The question is: Can he field enough to stick at 3B? He looked bad the two games I saw him play last summer but also drilled a moonshot HR. A move to 1B or LF is probably in order, regardless of offseason stories stating otherwise." - Luke Erickson, Nationals Prospects (@nats_prospects)

"If Matt Skole were more likely to stick at third base, he would be a very interesting prospect. Already with good physicality, he seems destined to continue to add to his tall, wide frame as he matures. That will further limit his fringy range, and given his mediocre actions, a move to first base is probable. Offensively, things are brighter with his combination of bat speed and strength. The offensive requirement for first base will make it an uphill climb, but Skole could emerge as a solid regular." - Jeff Reese, Bullpen Banter (@ioffridus)

"Matt Skole entered his junior season poised to be drafted in the top few rounds after two impressive seasons at Georgia Tech and a solid performance for Falmouth in the Cape Cod League that summer. Unfortunately Skole only hit 9 home runs last season as he struggled to adjust to the new composite bats introduced to college baseball, and scouts questioned if he would have enough power with a wood bat to be a starting corner infielder, allowing him to slip to the Nationals in Round 5. Possessing a massive frame and limited athleticism, there are legitimate concerns if he can be an adequate defender at third base, because if not, it is questionable if his bat profiles at first base. A left-handed hitter with power and a good batting eye, Skole should move quickly because of his experience playing in the ACC: his ceiling is that of a starting major league baseball third baseman, but ultimately, is more likely destined to be a bench player at the infield corners.” - Ryan Sullivan, (@natsgmdotcom)

Previous analysis and notes:
Hit 47 homers in 3 years at Georgia Tech, but only 10 came in 2011. Maintained the plate discipline improvements he made between his freshman and sophomore years this year. Briefly suspended in 2011 season for a DUI in late February. Aside from that, Skole is a solid pick and could move fairly quickly through the organization. At 3B, he would be a good hitter with a bad glove. At 1B/LF, he would be an average hitter with a mediocre glove. Intriguing prospect for now due to the power. Roundup: "The left-handed-hitting Skole hit 47 home runs in his three-year college career. The Rangers selected his brother, Jake, with the 15th overall pick out of high school last year."
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 6/14/2011: "Strong left-handed power, good strike zone judgment, opinions split on whether he can remain at third base, but the bat looks good."
From Mike Newman, Scouting the Sally, 4/20/2011: "Brother of former 1st round pick Jake Skole...Slightly below average athlete overall; Moves well for a man his size...More compact stroke than most left-handed hitters his size...Patient hitter; Rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone – even against mid-90′s velocity...See more potential as an average/on base hitter than true power hitting threat...Present speed is below average and is unlikely to improve...Future defensive home is uncertain...Showed a lack of confidence at third base; Shied away from cutting ball off in the 5/6 hole...Looks more comfortable at first base; Prospect status takes a definite hit if he settles in at 1B permanently...Has made a few starts behind the plate this season."
From Matt Grabusky, MLB Draft Guide, 4/13/2011: "Skole will go as far as his bat will take him. He is a patient hitter with plus power. He does have a head tug that is often mentioned and needs to be corrected if he is to reach his potential. Skole has a plus arm, but that is his only strenth in the field. His range is limited and his hands are suspect. A move to 1st or, possibly, left is on the horizon."
Matt Garrioch of MLB Bonus Baby had Skole listed 95th on his draft list on 6/3/2011 and 137th back on 11/22/2010.
Brian Foley of College Baseball Daily had Skole listed 59th on his draft list on 11/20/2010.

Skole signed with the Nats on June 16, 2011.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Round 6: Taylor Hill, RHP, Vanderbilt

Baseball-Reference                                                                                                                 FanGraphs
MiLB                                                                                                                                  Vanderbilt Bio

2011 stats:
2011 22 Auburn NYPL A- WSN 0 2 .000 3.16 9 5 0 0 0 0 31.1 32 12 11 1 3 0 27 3 0 2 128 1.117 9.2 0.3 0.9 7.8 9.00
1 Season 0 2 .000 3.16 9 5 0 0 0 0 31.1 32 12 11 1 3 0 27 3 0 2 128 1.117 9.2 0.3 0.9 7.8 9.00
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 3/21/2012.

Sean's One sentence analysis: Hill has decent stuff and control and could make it as either a back-of-the-rotation starter or a solid middle reliever.

Thoughts from the community:
"Hill began the season in the Auburn bullpen but finished in the rotation, posting a losing record (0-2) but strong peripherals (0.9BB, 7.8K, 9:1 K:BB) in limited innings (31.1 IP). Throws a SI/SL/CH combo and gets a lot of grounders. Current velocity is 88-92, but scouts like his size and believe there’s room for improvement." - Luke Erickson, Nationals Prospects (@nats_prospects)

"Hill has been a fixture in the middle of Vanderbilt's weekend rotation for the past couple of years. Unlike most bearing that title, he does not have an impact arm. Hill is a big, durable starter who will control an array of average pitches and chew up innings. Whether he has enough swing and miss in his arsenal to ultimately crack a major league rotation is still up in the air. Hill should move quickly and be ready to provide value in whatever role the Nationals need him to fill: back end starter, swing man, or middle reliever." - Jeff Reese, Bullpen Banter (@ioffridus)

Previous analysis and notes:
Drafted in the 30th round by the Indians last year. Hill was listed as the 173rd best player in the draft by Baseball America. Looks like a solid arm with the ability to make it as a middle reliever. Roundup: "Hill improved his Draft stock with his senior season at Vanderbilt after the Indians took him in the 30th round last year. Hill started 16 games and went 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA for the Commodores."
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 6/14/2011: "88-92 sinker, good slider and changeup, throws strikes, knows how to pitch. Possible fourth starter but a nice value selection."
From A Scout's View, 6/7/2011: "A bit of a slinger, good arm strength and will show you a 92-93 on occasion...pitches well down in the zone and around 90-91...fb up tends to straighten out and slider piece is just ok...command and control are good enough to be a good middle guy in the ML or a poor man's 5th man in the ML rotation...doesn't have any real knock out pitch, but he gets people out."
From John Klima, Baseball Beginnings, 3/12/2010: "Hill should have more power than he does now. That’s the factor that might help make Hill a better pro than a college pitcher. He has a barrel chest and broad shoulders and average arm speed, but with the proper combination of conditioning and instruction, he could be a better pro than the draft round he will likely fall in. In other words, he’s a tweener, but there might be more to work with than meets the eye....he won’t blow anyone away despite a frame that indicates there should be more power, but an improved change-up should help level that playing field. Right now I would conclude Hill has a touch more power than he is presently showing, but that alone will not make for enough power. His control and command on all pitches is serviceable enough to where Hill could be a decent guy if he can find a touch more power and a signature secondary pitch. Conclusion: This is a good draft pick to send to a good pro pitching coach."
From Jeff Ellis, Indians Prospect Insider, 6/8/2010: "Taylor Hill is the definition of a team player; he has pitched all over in the pen and as a starter. He seems destined for the pen where he excelled a year ago in the Cape. He has done well this year as a starter, but the previous two years had been solid but unimpressive. Hill has 2 plus pitches with a fastball that has good sink that is in the low 90’s. This pitch is offset by his low 80’s slider which also grades out as plus. He has a changeup in the high 70’s, but it is his weakest pitch by far. His mechanics need cleaned up, but he has the big body and durability you would want in a pitcher. He was rated as a Top 200 player by PGCrosschecker (in 2010)."

Hill signed with the Nats on July 14, 2011.

Friday, March 16, 2012

Round 7: Brian Dupra, RHP, Notre Dame

Baseball-Reference                                                                                                                 FanGraphs
MiLB                                                                                                                               Notre Dame Bio

2011 Stats
1 Season44.5003.46139000054.25224211140384032271.2078.
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 3/15/2012.

Sean's one sentence analysis: While many seniors are taken because they are safe and signable, Dupra was a popular figure in the draft analysis community due to his live arm and improving secondary options.

Thoughts from the community: 
"Dupra seems to have “figured it out” in ’11, his senior year with Notre Dame after three previous unimpressive seasons, lowering his ERA to 3.11 from 6.21 in his junior season. Throws mid-90s heat, but as seen firsthand, inconsistent offspeed stuff. Some scouts say he’ll profile better as a middle-to-long reliever, but he'll likely continue starting, perhaps even in Potomac this season." - Luke Erickson, Nationals Prospects (@nats_prospects)

"A senior from Notre Dame, Brian Dupra offers solid command of four pitches. The fastball can get into the low 90s but lacks the movement necessary for it to be a weapon. His slider is the best pitch in his arsenal with late 11-5 movement that has just enough depth to miss bats. The change and curve ball both lag further behind with the change being the more viable of the two. He emerged as a good college starter last year, but between his lack of a true out pitch and the effort in his delivery, his future probably will be out of the bullpen." - Jeff Reese, Bullpen Banter (@ioffridus)

“Brian Dupra starred on Cape Cod in the summer of 2009 for Harwich, making the All-Star team and flourishing at the back end of the Mariners bullpen. That summer I scouted him twice, seeing him throw a heavy fastball around 92-94mph, a potent slider, and the occasional changeup, setting him up to be one of the top relievers selected in the 2010 draft. Dupra returned to Notre Dame for his junior year and posted an unimpressive 6.21 ERA, allowing 102 hits in 82.2 innings pitched, which caused him to fall to the 11th round. Rather than sign, he returned to South Bend as a senior and firmly reestablished himself, producing a 3.10 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 104.2 innings pitched. Dupra will likely begin his minor league career as a starting pitcher to allow him to more quickly develop, but make no mistake, his future lies as a power fastball/slider right-handed reliever. While Dupra’s ceiling is not quite as high as some others, his floor is also pretty high, which means if he remains healthy, he should have a solid chance to carve out a career as a middle reliever whom is tough on right-handed hitters.” – Ryan Sullivan, (@natsgmdotcom)

Previous analysis and notes:
The trend of college senior RHPs continues with Dupra, Holt, Anderson and Rodriguez all in a row.  Another favorite of John Sickels, who took him in the 6th round of his shadow draft, noting that he had a good gut feeling on Dupra. #190 on Matt Garrioch's top 200 from 6/3/2011 and #147 on 11/22/2010. Drafted in the 11th round by Detroit in 2010. Dupra signing quickly was no surprise, as he is a senior with little leverage. Roundup: "The Rangers drafted Dupra out of high school in the 36th round, where he dropped due to a strong commitment to Notre Dame. Dupra went 16-20 with a 5.28 ERA in four years in South Bend, Ind."
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 6/14/2011: "College senior but don't underestimate him, fastball at 90-95, made large improvements with slider and changeup this year, good size at solidly built 6-3, 205"
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 5/11/2011: "Senior with live arm has made big strides in the last year."
From John Sickels, 3/30/2011: "Works at 90-93 and has hit 96 at times. Throws a changeup but inconsistent breaking stuff kept him from great success in past seasons. Dramatic improvement in stats this year is notable. Is it the different bat, or has he figured something out? He's definitely worth tracking."
From Andy Seiler, MLB Bonus Baby, 6/15/2010: "Seiler Rating 2C2: Dupra was almost an early round pick in the 2007 draft, and he struggled through three years at Notre Dame due to a poorly-commanded fastball and metal bats. I like this pick quite a bit, as his pure stuff and size makes him a potential #4 starter, but he fell this far due to a lack of a successful track record." Note-2C2 means Dupra had 4-6 round talent, about MLB league average potential and around a 20% of achieving that.

Follow @bdupra6 on Twitter.

Dupra signed with the Nats on June 16, 2011.