Friday, March 16, 2012

Round 7: Brian Dupra, RHP, Notre Dame

Baseball-Reference                                                                                                                 FanGraphs
MiLB                                                                                                                               Notre Dame Bio

2011 Stats
1 Season44.5003.46139000054.25224211140384032271.2078.
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 3/15/2012.

Sean's one sentence analysis: While many seniors are taken because they are safe and signable, Dupra was a popular figure in the draft analysis community due to his live arm and improving secondary options.

Thoughts from the community: 
"Dupra seems to have “figured it out” in ’11, his senior year with Notre Dame after three previous unimpressive seasons, lowering his ERA to 3.11 from 6.21 in his junior season. Throws mid-90s heat, but as seen firsthand, inconsistent offspeed stuff. Some scouts say he’ll profile better as a middle-to-long reliever, but he'll likely continue starting, perhaps even in Potomac this season." - Luke Erickson, Nationals Prospects (@nats_prospects)

"A senior from Notre Dame, Brian Dupra offers solid command of four pitches. The fastball can get into the low 90s but lacks the movement necessary for it to be a weapon. His slider is the best pitch in his arsenal with late 11-5 movement that has just enough depth to miss bats. The change and curve ball both lag further behind with the change being the more viable of the two. He emerged as a good college starter last year, but between his lack of a true out pitch and the effort in his delivery, his future probably will be out of the bullpen." - Jeff Reese, Bullpen Banter (@ioffridus)

“Brian Dupra starred on Cape Cod in the summer of 2009 for Harwich, making the All-Star team and flourishing at the back end of the Mariners bullpen. That summer I scouted him twice, seeing him throw a heavy fastball around 92-94mph, a potent slider, and the occasional changeup, setting him up to be one of the top relievers selected in the 2010 draft. Dupra returned to Notre Dame for his junior year and posted an unimpressive 6.21 ERA, allowing 102 hits in 82.2 innings pitched, which caused him to fall to the 11th round. Rather than sign, he returned to South Bend as a senior and firmly reestablished himself, producing a 3.10 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 104.2 innings pitched. Dupra will likely begin his minor league career as a starting pitcher to allow him to more quickly develop, but make no mistake, his future lies as a power fastball/slider right-handed reliever. While Dupra’s ceiling is not quite as high as some others, his floor is also pretty high, which means if he remains healthy, he should have a solid chance to carve out a career as a middle reliever whom is tough on right-handed hitters.” – Ryan Sullivan, (@natsgmdotcom)

Previous analysis and notes:
The trend of college senior RHPs continues with Dupra, Holt, Anderson and Rodriguez all in a row.  Another favorite of John Sickels, who took him in the 6th round of his shadow draft, noting that he had a good gut feeling on Dupra. #190 on Matt Garrioch's top 200 from 6/3/2011 and #147 on 11/22/2010. Drafted in the 11th round by Detroit in 2010. Dupra signing quickly was no surprise, as he is a senior with little leverage. Roundup: "The Rangers drafted Dupra out of high school in the 36th round, where he dropped due to a strong commitment to Notre Dame. Dupra went 16-20 with a 5.28 ERA in four years in South Bend, Ind."
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 6/14/2011: "College senior but don't underestimate him, fastball at 90-95, made large improvements with slider and changeup this year, good size at solidly built 6-3, 205"
From John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 5/11/2011: "Senior with live arm has made big strides in the last year."
From John Sickels, 3/30/2011: "Works at 90-93 and has hit 96 at times. Throws a changeup but inconsistent breaking stuff kept him from great success in past seasons. Dramatic improvement in stats this year is notable. Is it the different bat, or has he figured something out? He's definitely worth tracking."
From Andy Seiler, MLB Bonus Baby, 6/15/2010: "Seiler Rating 2C2: Dupra was almost an early round pick in the 2007 draft, and he struggled through three years at Notre Dame due to a poorly-commanded fastball and metal bats. I like this pick quite a bit, as his pure stuff and size makes him a potential #4 starter, but he fell this far due to a lack of a successful track record." Note-2C2 means Dupra had 4-6 round talent, about MLB league average potential and around a 20% of achieving that.

Follow @bdupra6 on Twitter.

Dupra signed with the Nats on June 16, 2011.

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